Whole genome sequencing identifies multiple loci for critical illness caused by COVID-19 (preprint)

Critical illness in COVID-19 is caused by inflammatory lung injury, mediated by the host immune system. We and others have shown that host genetic variation influences the development of illness requiring critical care1 or hospitalisation2;3;4 following SARS-Co-V2 infection. The GenOMICC (Genetics of Mortality in Critical Care) study is designed to compare genetic variants in critically-ill cases with population controls in order to find underlying disease mechanisms. Here, we use whole genome sequencing and statistical fine mapping in 7,491 critically-ill cases compared with 48,400 population controls to discover and replicate 22 independent variants that significantly predispose to life-threatening COVID-19. We identify 15 new independent associations with critical COVID-19, including variants within genes involved in interferon signalling (IL10RB, PLSCR1), leucocyte differentiation (BCL11A), and blood type antigen secretor status (FUT2). Using transcriptome-wide association and colocalisation to infer the effect of gene expression on disease severity, we find evidence implicating expression of multiple genes, including reduced expression of a membrane flippase (ATP11A), and increased mucin expression (MUC1), in critical disease. We show that comparison between critically-ill cases and population controls is highly efficient for genetic association analysis and enables detection of therapeutically-relevant mechanisms of disease. Therapeutic predictions arising from these findings require testing in clinical trials.

A common TMPRSS2 variant protects against severe COVID-19 (preprint)

Infection with SARS-CoV-2 has a wide range of clinical presentations, from asymptomatic to life-threatening. Old age is the strongest factor associated with increased COVID19-related mortality, followed by sex and pre-existing conditions. The importance of genetic and immunological factors on COVID19 outcome is also starting to emerge, as demonstrated by population studies and the discovery of damaging variants in genes controlling type I IFN immunity and of autoantibodies that neutralize type I IFNs. The human protein transmembrane protease serine type 2 (TMPRSS2) plays a key role in SARS-CoV-2 infection, as it is required to activate the virus spike protein, facilitating entry into target cells. We focused on the only common TMPRSS2 non-synonymous variant predicted to be damaging (rs12329760), which has a minor allele frequency of [~]25% in the population. In a large population of SARS-CoV-2 positive patients, we show that this variant is associated with a reduced likelihood of developing severe COVID19 (OR 0.87, 95%CI:0.79-0.97, p=0.01). This association was stronger in homozygous individuals when compared to the general population (OR 0.65, 95%CI:0.50-0.84, p=1.3x10-3). We demonstrate in vitro that this variant, which causes the amino acid substitution valine to methionine, impacts the catalytic activity of TMPRSS2 and is less able to support SARS-CoV-2 spike-mediated entry into cells. TMPRSS2 rs12329760 is a common variant associated with a significantly decreased risk of severe COVID19. Further studies are needed to assess the expression of the TMPRSS2 across different age groups. Moreover, our results identify TMPRSS2 as a promising drug target, with a potential role for camostat mesilate, a drug approved for the treatment of chronic pancreatitis and postoperative reflux esophagitis, in the treatment of COVID19. Clinical trials are needed to confirm this.